🐝 C. Hornets (H-Score)
H-Score, Four Factors breakdown, and Southeast Division intelligence — powered by advanced statistical models.
Last Updated: June 3, 2026
🏀 The Luck Gap — 2026 Season
Power Ranking
Hornets Are Outperforming Their Record
Actual Wins
44
W-L Record
Luck Gap
+8.8
Expected – Actual
Expected Wins
52.8
Pythagorean Model
📊 Analyst Note: Charlotte's Pythagorean model — built on a 103.9 H-Score — projects 52.8 expected wins against only 44 actual wins. This +8.8-game gap signals the Hornets are underperforming their underlying efficiency metrics — their true ceiling is higher than the standings reflect.
Team Metrics
🏀 Four Factors Radar — visualizing the Hornets' "shape" vs. the NBA average across Dean Oliver's Four Factors. *TOV% axis is inverted — further out = fewer turnovers.
| Metric | Hornets | NBA Avg | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% (↑ better) | 55.1% | 53.5% | +1.6% |
| TOV% (↓ better) | 13.4% | 13.9% | 0.5% |
| ORB% (↑ better) | 27.8% | 24.9% | +2.9% |
| FT/FGA (↑ better) | 0.198 | 0.218 | -0.020 |
Division Rankings
🏆 Southeast Division — H-Score Standings. Ranked by H-Score (Hornet Score) rather than W-L to reveal each team's "True Power" within the division.
| Rank | Team | H-Score | Exp Wins | Luck Gap | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🐝 Charlotte Hornets Hornets | 103.9 | 52.8 | +8.8 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Atlanta Hawks | 102.1 | 47.1 | +1.1 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Miami Heat | 102.1 | 46.7 | +3.7 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Orlando Magic | 100.7 | 42.5 | -2.5 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Washington Wizards | 89.8 | 16 | -1 | — | — | — |
H-Score is a composite metric weighted by Net Rating (35%), eFG% (25%), TOV% (20%, inverted), and ORB% (20%). A score of 100 equals the league average.
Betting Edge
Model-derived win probability, game total, and first-half projection for today's Hornets matchup.
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Hornets Off-Day
No active Hornets prediction found in today's NBA slate.
1 other game on today's slate. View full NBA slate →
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Analyst Notes
The Charlotte Hornets are a solid, above-average squad (H-Score: 103.9) (#4 true East seed by H-Score), placing them in the 73rd percentile of the Eastern Conference. With a Luck Gap of +8.8 wins — meaning they should have roughly 52 wins based on their underlying efficiency instead of the 44 they have — the Hornets are statistically undervalued and their true ceiling is higher than the standings reflect.
The Four Factors — effective field-goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate (TOV%), offensive rebounding (ORB%), and free-throw rate (FT/FGA) — collectively drive the Hornets' H-Score upward even as the scoreboard under-credits their true quality. When a team's efficiency metrics significantly outpace their record, history shows they tend to correct upward as the season progresses.
About the H-Score Model
The H-Score (Hornet Score) is a proprietary composite metric designed to evaluate NBA team strength through the lens of Dean Oliver's Four Factors framework. It weights Net Rating / SRS at 35%, Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) at 25%, Turnover Percentage (TOV%, inverted) at 20%, and Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORB%) at 20%. All components are z-score normalized across the full 30-team league and scaled to a 100-point baseline. A higher H-Score indicates a stronger overall team relative to the rest of the NBA.